As the dust settles on another Academy Awards ceremony, one thing remains abundantly clear: predicting Oscar winners, especially with an early glance, is a notoriously challenging endeavor. This year’s ceremony underscored that point, with films that might have seemed like locks a year ago failing to materialize as contenders, while unexpected international entries and genre films, such as the critically lauded horror Sinners and the phenomenon KPop Demon Hunters, surprised many by not reaching the nominations stage, or conversely, by exceeding expectations. The evolving landscape of cinema, coupled with a diversifying Academy membership, continues to make the race more dynamic and less predictable. This unpredictability, however, only fuels the excitement for the upcoming awards season. With that in mind, we present an early, speculative look at potential contenders for next year’s Oscars, examining individuals and projects poised to capture the Academy’s attention.
Aaron Sorkin: A Master of Dialogue Returns to Digital Frontiers
Never underestimate the power of Aaron Sorkin in the Oscar race. The acclaimed screenwriter, a recipient of a Bafta, multiple Emmys, and Golden Globes, has a sole Oscar to his name for the screenplay of The Social Network. His upcoming project, The Social Reckoning, is described as an unconventional semi-sequel, delving into the seismic 2021 leak orchestrated by whistleblower Frances Haugen. This narrative tackles the pervasive influence and ethical quandaries of social media, a theme that has only grown in relevance since The Social Network first illuminated the early days of Facebook.
The casting for The Social Reckoning is already generating significant buzz. Mikey Madison, who earned critical acclaim and the Best Actress Oscar last year, is reportedly set to portray Frances Haugen. Her decision to prioritize this role over potential blockbuster opportunities, including projects within the Star Wars universe and adaptations of Colleen Hoover novels, speaks volumes about the script’s perceived strength. Jeremy Strong, a nominee for his role in The Apprentice, is slated to embody Mark Zuckerberg, a casting choice that promises a compelling on-screen dynamic.
While Sorkin’s last directorial effort, the biopic Being the Ricardos, received a mixed reception, his consistent ability to craft sharp, intelligent dialogue and his proven track record with the Academy make The Social Reckoning a formidable contender. The Academy has a demonstrated affinity for Sorkin’s work, evidenced by his nomination for The Trial of the Chicago 7. The current societal climate, marked by increasing scrutiny of tech giants, suggests that a film dissecting the impact of platforms like Facebook could resonate deeply with voters. The film’s exploration of a significant contemporary event through Sorkin’s signature lens positions it as a potential frontrunner, particularly in the Best Original Screenplay category.
Sandra Hüller: A European Star’s Ascent in Hollywood
German actress Sandra Hüller has long been a celebrated figure in European cinema, amassing numerous awards before achieving widespread recognition in Hollywood. Her mid-40s breakthrough came with the critically acclaimed thriller Anatomy of a Fall, a film that transitioned from a Palme d’Or victory at Cannes to significant Oscar attention, securing five nominations, including a Best Actress nod for Hüller herself. Though the film ultimately took home the Oscar for Best Original Screenplay, Hüller’s performance was a cornerstone of its success.
Adding to her impressive year, Hüller also featured prominently in Jonathan Glazer’s equally lauded Holocaust drama, The Zone of Interest, which triumphed over Anatomy of a Fall for the Best International Feature Film award. The surge in Hollywood opportunities has led Hüller to capitalize on a major project, starring opposite Ryan Gosling in the ambitious $200 million science-fiction adventure, Project Hail Mary. While this particular film may not be a typical awards contender, it demonstrates Hüller’s expanding reach and marketability.
Her awards trajectory, however, is far from over. Later this year, Hüller is set to co-lead 1949, a drama set against the backdrop of the Cold War, from director Paweł Pawlikowski. Pawlikowski, whose previous film Ida won an Oscar and Cold War earned a nomination, has a strong rapport with the Academy. This collaboration, combined with Hüller’s proven dramatic prowess, makes 1949 a significant awards prospect. Furthermore, she is slated for a supporting role in Alejandro G. Iñárritu’s highly anticipated black comedy Digger, starring Tom Cruise. This project, expected to be positioned as an awards play, further solidifies Hüller’s status as a rising force in the international film scene and a potential multiple nominee.
Charles Melton: From Teen Idol to Dramatic Acclaim
The trajectory of Charles Melton appeared to be on an accelerated path toward Oscar recognition in 2024. The actor, who transitioned from heartthrob roles in teen dramas to more serious dramatic fare, was widely considered a strong contender for a Supporting Actor nomination for his standout performance in Todd Haynes’s nuanced drama, May December. Despite widespread critical acclaim from festival circuits, the Academy ultimately did not nominate him.
This year, Melton is poised to make another strong bid with two festival-primed projects. First, he stars in Nicolas Winding Refn’s thriller Her Private Hell, a film anticipated to premiere at the Cannes Film Festival, a known launchpad for awards contenders. Following that, he will feature in Saturn Returns, a project from the directorial duo Greg Kwedar and Clint Bentley, whose previous films, Sing Sing and Train Dreams, collectively garnered seven Oscar nominations. Saturn Returns is described as a sweeping romantic drama chronicling the decade-long transition of college sweethearts into adulthood. The involvement of Netflix and Brad Pitt’s production company, Plan B, a studio with a formidable track record in guiding actors to awards glory, further enhances the film’s Oscar prospects. While Refn’s work is not always Oscar-friendly, the pedigree of Saturn Returns and its production backing suggest Melton’s potential for significant awards attention.
Ryusuke Hamaguchi: Continuing the International Wave
While this year’s ceremony did not yield the international wins some had hoped for, the increased presence of non-English language films among major nominations signals a growing embrace by the Academy. The success of films like Sentimental Value and The Secret Agent indicates a continuing trend of the Academy looking beyond traditional Hollywood fare. In 2022, Ryusuke Hamaguchi’s Drive My Car made history as the first Japanese film to receive a Best Picture nomination, alongside an International Feature Film win and two additional nominations for Hamaguchi himself in Screenplay and Director categories.
Hamaguchi’s next directorial effort, a project hotly tipped for a premiere at Cannes, is a co-production between France and Japan. The film centers on the complex relationship between a nursing home director and a terminally ill playwright, promising an emotionally resonant narrative. Hamaguchi has stated that he was inspired by a real-life dynamic that "deeply moved" him. The film is backed by Neon, the same distribution company that propelled Parasite and Anora to Oscar success. This confluence of a celebrated director, a poignant subject matter, and a supportive distributor strongly suggests that Hamaguchi’s new film is positioned to be a significant international contender, continuing the Academy’s embrace of global cinema.
Ruth Madeley: A Historic Role in Disability Advocacy
Sian Heder’s 2021 Best Picture winner, CODA, while memorable for its representation of a deaf family, has perhaps faded somewhat in the collective memory of recent Oscar history. However, Heder’s talent for directing compelling narratives that highlight underrepresented communities remains undeniable. Her next project, Being Heumann, a drama focusing on the life of pioneering disability rights activist Judith Heumann, sees her reuniting with Apple. The story of Heumann’s life is ripe for biographical treatment, provided it transcends a mere chronological retelling of her achievements.
Heder has cast British actress Ruth Madeley in the titular role. Madeley has been a prominent figure in television, known for her roles in Doctor Who and Years and Years, and is recognized as one of the most visible wheelchair-using actors in the industry. The project boasts a strong supporting cast, including Oscar nominee Mark Ruffalo and the in-demand Dylan O’Brien. With such significant backing and a powerful true story at its core, Being Heumann is primed for awards consideration. If Madeley secures a nomination, she would undoubtedly make history, further expanding the scope of representation on the Oscar stage.
Sebastian Stan: Beyond the MCU, Towards Critical Acclaim
Sebastian Stan, largely liberated from his Marvel Cinematic Universe commitments following the underperformance of this year’s Avengers film, is making a concerted effort to establish himself as a serious dramatic actor. His recent Golden Globe win for A Different Man and his first Oscar nomination for The Apprentice signal a significant career pivot. This summer, he is expected to return to the Cannes Film Festival with Fjord, the latest drama from acclaimed director Cristian Mungiu.
Mungiu, a Palme d’Or winner for 4 Months, 3 Weeks, 2 Days, has a complex relationship with the Academy, having been notably overlooked for that masterpiece. However, his collaboration with Stan and this year’s Best Actress nominee Renate Reinsve for a film that marks his first foray into semi-English language cinema (incorporating Romanian and Norwegian) appears to be a more strategically sound approach for awards recognition, particularly given the Academy’s increasing international demographic. Fjord reportedly explores the fallout between two families after a devastating accusation of abuse. Early images suggest a striking transformation for Stan, who appears almost unrecognizable, hinting at a performance that could garner significant attention.
Octavia Spencer: A Familiar Face in a Classic Adaptation
Director Chinonye Chukwu has demonstrated a pattern of working with actresses who have come close to Oscar nominations. Her previous films, Clemency (featuring Alfre Woodard, who garnered Bafta, Gotham, and Independent Spirit nominations) and Till (starring Danielle Deadwyler, who received Bafta, SAG, and Critics’ Choice nominations alongside a Gotham win), have highlighted compelling performances. Her next project, a new adaptation of Arthur Miller’s seminal play Death of a Salesman, appears poised to finally bring Chukwu herself into the Oscar conversation.
This adaptation, the first major screen version since 1951, is being developed with the significant involvement of four-time Oscar nominee and two-time Tony winner Tony Kushner. The cast is undeniably star-studded, featuring Oscar nominee Jeffrey Wright as Willy Loman, Oscar winner Octavia Spencer, Tony nominee Corey Hawkins, and Kelvin Harrison Jr. While any of these actors could be in contention, Spencer, a three-time Oscar nominee herself, is a consistent favorite of the Academy. If Death of a Salesman is completed and released in time for this awards season, Spencer’s performance could place her squarely in the lead actress race, offering a powerful interpretation of a classic character.
Jack O’Connell: A Comeback Fueled by Gritty Roles
Jack O’Connell is experiencing a notable career resurgence, re-establishing himself after an initial period of breakout success in the early 2010s. The past year has seen him embrace darker, more complex roles, including scene-stealing villainous turns in 28 Years Later: The Bone Temple and Sinners. His ensemble performance in the latter earned him accolades at this month’s Actor Awards, signaling a renewed appreciation for his talent.
Before he transitions to a more commercial venture in Godzilla vs. Kong: Supernova, O’Connell is set to lead Danny Boyle’s adaptation of the acclaimed stage play Ink. He will portray former tabloid editor Larry Lamb, facing off against Guy Pearce as Rupert Murdoch in a drama set in the vibrant, cutthroat world of 1960s Fleet Street. The stage production of Ink was met with widespread adoration. Boyle’s previous foray into a fact-based workplace drama, Steve Jobs, resulted in Oscar nominations for Michael Fassbender and Kate Winslet. Given O’Connell’s recent string of strong performances, a role in a Danny Boyle film, particularly one with such a compelling historical and theatrical pedigree, could finally garner him the Oscar recognition he deserves.
Parker Posey: The "Queen of the Indies" Finds Her Awards Moment
Parker Posey, an actress long cherished within the independent film circuit, has steadily been building a resume that suggests an impending awards breakthrough. While often overlooked by mainstream casting directors in the past, her recent smaller roles in films such as Beau Is Afraid, Thelma, and Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris, followed by her critically acclaimed performance in The White Lotus, have culminated in a significant role in Martin McDonagh’s latest project, Wild Horse Nine.
McDonagh’s previous two films, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri and The Banshees of Inisherin, garnered an impressive 17 Oscar nominations between them. His latest offering is expected to follow a similar trajectory, with a potential premiere at the Venice Film Festival, followed by critical acclaim and subsequent awards season campaigning. Wild Horse Nine is described as a narrative centered on CIA agents in the 1970s. While Posey’s specific role remains undisclosed, her distinctive persona and ability to deliver darkly comedic dialogue make her a perfect fit for McDonagh’s signature style. Her presence in such a highly anticipated project, helmed by a director with a proven Oscar track record, positions her as a strong contender for a supporting role nomination.
Andrew Garfield: Tackling Tech Giants and Historical Revolts
Andrew Garfield, despite a recent collaboration with Luca Guadagnino on the less-than-successful campus thriller After the Hunt, is slated for another potential collaboration with the director that holds considerable promise. Garfield is set to portray OpenAI CEO Sam Altman in Artificial, a film chronicling the dramatic events of late 2023, when Altman was briefly ousted and then reinstated as the head of the artificial intelligence company.
In a landscape increasingly populated by films exploring the complexities and potential dangers of artificial intelligence, Artificial emerges as a timely and relevant project. Given the palpable tension and skepticism surrounding AI, evidenced in discussions surrounding this past Oscars ceremony, a film that delves into the behind-the-scenes machinations of a leading AI company could resonate strongly with Academy voters. Garfield, a two-time nominee for Best Actor, also leads Paul Greengrass’s new film, The Uprising. This historical drama recounts the English Peasants’ Revolt of 1381. While Greengrass’s previous films, often characterized by their action-heavy style (his wildfire thriller The Lost Bus received only a visual effects nomination), may not always be Oscar magnets, the theme of social unrest and the widening gap between the rich and the poor in The Uprising could prove exceptionally timely. As societal concerns about economic inequality continue to mount, this film’s historical parallel might strike a chord with the Academy, offering Garfield another avenue for recognition.
